If Magnet Pull's out-of-battle effect rolls a Steel-type encounter, how does it choose between multiple Pokemon?

Question

From Pokémon Emerald onwards, if a Pokémon with Magnet Pull is in the first place in the party (even if fainted), then there is a 50% chance the game will force an encounter with a Steel-type Pokémon, if one is possible.

-Bulbapedia's page for Magnet Pull. The same question goes for Static and its effect on Electric types.

I'm confused. In Omega Ruby, both Mawile and Aron live in Granite Cave. Both can be found in B2F of the cave; if I have Magnet Pull, how does it affect the spawn rates if one of these encounters is triggered by Magnet Pull? Given that this means other possible encounters are thrown out the window for this particular encounter that the ability did trigger, what are the new rates?

Aron is normally higher than Mawile at a 30%-20% ratio, while in hordes it's even harder at 35% to only 5%.

If looking for Mawile might potentially be easy maybe I'll look for one. I already have Aron.

Answer 1

The previous answer is a bit of guess, so does mine, but let us analyse this deeply.

• In Area 2 of Granite Gave (OrAs), you can only encounter one steel type i.e. Aron. It has 30% chance to encounter.
• It will become 50% if your party will be leading with Magnet Pull.
• So the rest of the 'mons have the probabilty of 50% to be encountered. Zubat, Abra and Makuhita are the rest of the 'mons encountered, so the combined availability is 50%.

Without Magnet pull:

1. Zubat - 50%
2. Aron - 30%
3. Abra - 10%
4. Makuhita - 10%

So basically percentage of encountering all Pokemons except Aron is 70%.

When magnet pull is affected,

1. Aron - 50%
2. Zubat - 50/70 * 50 = 35.71% (approx)
3. Abra - 10/70 * 50 = 7.14%
4. Makuhita - 10/70 * 50 = 7.14%

When you add all the values, it will be 99.99 which is approx 100%.

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In Area 3 in Granite Cave, where two steel types, both Mawile and Aron are found,

Without Magnet Pull,

1. Zubat - 50%
2. Aron - 30%
3. Abra - 10%
4. Mawile - 10%

Possibility of encountering Steel types = 30 + 10 = 40%, non-steel types = 60%

With Magnet Pull, (Aron + Mawile = 50%)

1. Aron - 30/40 * 50 = 37.5 %
2. Mawile - 10/40 * 50 = 12.5%
3. Zubat - 50/60 * 50 = 41.67%
4. Abra - 10/60 * 50 = 8.33%

When you add all the values, it will total to 100%

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I am not sure in the case where the probability of encountering a steel type is above 50%, whether it reduces to 50% or not. However, it is a guess.

Hope this helps :)

Comments

Hmmm. This appears to make more sense than the original answer.

I do have an additional question, however - how does this affect the spawn rates of Hordes in Area 3? What about when they are forced with Honey or Sweet Scent? It still draws both Steel types, as well as a chance for Zubat, which I actually have found an accidental shiny since I started with this thread.

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Sorry to ask this, but what happens when you put Honey or use Sweet Scent?

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If you use it outside of battle in a place where horde encounters are possible, it will force one.

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I guess it works in the same way. You are really lucky to get a shiny then.

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Can one of you just test this in-game instead of doing all of this math?

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Yh sumwun I tried it (And I finally caught my first shiny, a mawile. I love magneton from that day, info in my profile)
I would say I can see lots of mawile and aron both in similar numbers.

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Same, sumwun. They're right that the odds of pulling Mawile are dramatically higher. Whether their math adds up properly or not I can't confirm, but I too found a shiny Mawile in no time from this.

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(My answer was just a guess. Also, I don't believe that it is true, seeing that odds of encountering Mawile is way more than the actual odds.... I might research a li'l more about it, it may take time)

Answer 2

I think we just gotta do a little math.
Bulbapedia says 50% chance to force steel type encounter. Steel types= 2
Chance for Mawile and Aron = 50/2 = 25%
Thus both have 1/4 chance of appearing if leading with magnet pull Pokémon. Please try this and tell me if it helps!

Comments

Are you sure that's how it's calculated? Do you have a source that the rates are evenly split if Magnet Pull activates?

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Yes I'm pretty sure that is how it's supposed to work. No I don't have a source but it's logic. Do you think aron will have 49% and malwile 1%? :d
That's why I told try it. But I'm pretty sure how it works.

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But what happens if the two pokemon have vastly different encounter rates? Would Magnet Pull bump up the lower encounter rate to match? That doesn't necessarily make sense. This answer is incomplete.

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@PX yes logically that's how it's supposed to work. Anyway, I just tried it in my ruby file and I can say that my math is correct ( until unless I'm really lucky and find many mawiles)
As bulbapedia says it is similar for all games from gen 3, I believe it'll be same for OP.

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OK, HoennSceptile, I've tried testing the rates. It's true, I'm pulling Mawile at a higher rate than you might expect. But I'm still not entirely convinced your math is correct.

According to some information I'm receiving from another member from the DB who contacted someone on the Bulbapedia Discord, Mawile might actually be slightly higher than Aron with MP, though I don't understand why that's the case.

Do you or anyone else know anything about this?  https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/817433160342175744/820626972182446101/Capture.PNG

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If you still have some further questions about that, I guess you should tell here so that I can ask him about that :P

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Ok. My answer based on logic. I don't have proof it's correct. So your choice to decide.

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No your answer is not based on logic. There's nothing in logic that says division will work in this situation, or says that each of the 2 steel Pokemon must have the same encounter chance. This answer is just a guess made using a little bit of math.