What are the odds of a Pokemon to have pokerus, be a shiny, and have the uncommon mark?

Question

I wanna know and see how lucky I am to spend many hours trying to get one. Please show formula too so I can use it to my advantage.

Comments

Do you have the Shiny Charm, Mark Charm, or both?

---

Which game? I'm guessing Gen 8?

Also, it's very likely your shiny has had Pokerus spread to it.

Answer 1

Assuming Gen 8 since Pokerus doesn't exist in Gen 9:

Wild Shiny: 1/4096
Wild Shiny w/Charm: 1/1365
Wild Pokerus encounter: 1/21845
Wild Uncommon Mark: 1/100

No charm Shiny Pokerus Uncommon Mark:
4,096 • 21,845 • 100 = 1/8,947,712,000

With charm:
1,365 • 21,845 • 100 = 1/2,981,842,500

---

For the record, the chance of finding a specific pattern of Spinda is 1/4,294,967,295.

MonkeyBusiness would not recommend.

Comments

Thanks now I can’t wait to spend hours of suffering trying to catch one

---

enjoy ur pain!

Answer 2

By my calculations, these are the numbers.
No Shiny Or Mark Charm: 21,845 x 50 x 4,096 = 1 in 4,470,613,3331 (0.00000002235%)
With Mark Charm: 21,845 x 16.6 x 4,096 = 1 in 1,521,463,214​ (0.0000000657%)
With Shiny Charm: 21,845 x 50 x 1,365 = 1 in 1,491,285,333 (0.00000006706%​)
With Shiny Charm & Mark Charm: 21,845 x 16.6 x 1,365 = 1 in 507,154,405 (0.000000197%)

It is very likely however, that instead your shiny was given Pokérus by another Pokémon in which case the odds are something someone else can calculate or myself in the future, it wasn't specified, so until further notice, that's it.

Hope this helps you!

Edited with the insight of Ditto and Hellfire Taco, shoutout to them.

Source: Easily accessible numbers and math. Nobody can say this isn't an actual source. Right?

Comments

Is it possible you could put these in a fraction somehow?

---

.964 what...? A 96.4% chance of this happening? Either way, I don't think there's math was done right. It should be multiplication, no?

---

Yeah, I realized I should have used multiplication, not division. It's edited now, so hopefully I'm right this time.