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I really want to know which starter does best in every game because I have my opinions and theories, but I'd like to know the facts of the subject.

Answer in terms of which starter makes completing the playthrough most efficient and hassle-free.

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Swampert in gen 3 for sure
In gen three, it is Swampert but it has a neutral matchup against most of the game

In gen four, definitely Infernape. Fire types are not that common in gen four so that's already a point in its favor and it has incredible high based damage stabs. It's also really fast so that's something and has priority mach punch, which you will rarely need but useful in the early game

In gen five, I think it is Oshawott for the same reasons as Swampert. It mostly has a neutral matchup with the exception of the electric gym

In gen six, I think it is Chespin. I'm not sure on that though

In gen seven, I'm not sure about this but I would say whatever the water type is since it gets the fairy typing and water is a very good type
Neutral matchup? It beats Roxanne, Wattson, Flannery, and Liza & Tate which it’s STABs. It also has coverage for Winona, Sidney, and Glacia. It also learns a bunch of HMs which is helpful.
Oh in that case Swampert has an even better matchup than I first thought. If that's the case, then Swampert is definitely the best. Now that you mention it, the only thing that Swampert has to worry about is one Roselia somewhere. I can't exactly remember where it is. I think it was in the desert
Are gym leaders and the Elite 4 really all that you need to worry about in a playthrough? Rival battles and other significant battles exist, too, but not a single person has mentioned anything other than gym leaders and the Elite 4 in their answers.
No. I don't think any of the answers are good.
I'm going to remove all the answers to this question that don't give full explanations.

1 Answer

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I think it useful to first post my criteria for an in-game Pokemon starter, or any Pokemon truly, in descending order of priority:

  1. Immediacy-must be strong vs early gyms.
  2. Typing-must have a useful typing.
  3. Power-must be strong, fast, and tough, in that order.
  4. Coverage-must have answers to threats.
  5. Growth-must be early to acquire & quick to grow.
  6. Utility-Must have a role on the team.

With that stated - and understanding that my own criteria are guidelines and not rules - I present below the fully-evolved starters with their ideal learnsets from 3rd gen onwards, and a brief explanation of its worthiness:

KANTO, GEN-3, BLASTOISE
Surf, Aqua Cannon, Blizzard, Bite
Blastoise owns early gyms and caves while being a good tank with a useful movepool, allowing it to afford lost turns with Aqua Cannon or misses with Blizzard.
Suggested Team: Blastoise, Nidoking, Kadabra, Dodrio, Snorlax, Flareon

HOENN, GEN-3, SWAMPERT
Surf, Earthquake, Ice Beam, Rollout
Swampert enjoys superb typing, learns good moves early, and has an excellent stat spread. Rollout is filler in a Rock-move-starved generation.
Suggested Team: Swampert, Gardevoir, Slaking, Crobat, Hariyama, Exploud

JOHTO, GEN-4, TYPHLOSION
Sunny Day, Fire Blast, Flamethrower, Solarbeam
Better than the other options. Sunny day eases Solar Beam and powers up Fire STABs. Fire Blast in sun is powerful enough to count as its own coverage.
Suggested Team: Typhlosion, Ampharos, Espeon, Crobat, Heracross, Lapras

SINNOH, GEN-4, INFERNAPE
Flare Blitz, Close Combat, Shadow Claw, Thunder Punch
Speedy, powerful, wide movepool, good typing, Infernape drops foes with its powerful STABS and invaluable coverage. Flamethrower, Focus Blast, Mach Lunch, Grass Knot, many options.
Suggested Team: Infernape, Staraptor, Garchomp, Espeon, LickiLicki, Weavile

UNOVA, GEN-5, SAMUROTT
Aqua Tail, Surf, Ice Beam, Megahorn
Samurott is a bulky mixed attacker and a rare good Water-type in this gen. The above set represent his best coverage options. A glue Pokemon more than a sweeper.
Suggested Team: Samurott, Galvantula, Krookadile, Chandelure, Haxorus, Golurk (learns Fly)

KALOS, GEN-6, DELPHOX
Psychic, Flamethrower, Shadow Ball, Grass Knot
Fast, powerful, with the ability to Calm Mind boost but better off as a coverage cleaner. Not burdened with an unseemly tongue scarf, which surely must count as an asset.
(NOTE: Pairs well with Mega-Blastoise, a sporting Mega-Evolution who should run Surf, Ice Beam, Dark Pulse, & Flash Cannon)
Suggested Team: Delphox, Blastoise-Mega, Gogoat, Heliolisk, Aegislash, Hawlucha

ALOLA, GEN-7, DECIDUEYE
Leaf Blade, Spirit Shackle, U-Turn, Brave Bird
Robin Hood The Bird can trap with Spirit Shackle (or use Z-move) and then U-Turn out to a sweeper. Brave Bird dispatches Pokemon the Ghost can check. Can run mixed sets, too.
Suggested Team: Decidueye, Toucannon, Vikavolt, Mudsdale, Espeon, Cloyster

GALAR, GEN-8, INTELEON
Surf, Ice Beam, Air Slash, Shadow Ball
Very speedy & powerful, and one of the best Water-types in the region. It does this one job and does it well.
Suggested Team: Inteleon, Copperajah, Toxtricity, Hawlucha, Haxorus, Gardevoir

HISUI, GEN-9, QUAQUAVAL
Surf, Aqua Step, Close Combat, Ice Spinner
Aqua Step Speed buff plus Moxie ability leads to Mighty Duck ownage. Has the compressed coverage needed for cleaning, sweeping, AND Surf utility to spare.
Suggested Team: Quaquaval, Oinkologne-Male, Glimmora, Kilowattrel, Arboliva, Annihilape

Hope this points long-time fans in the right direction!

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HM user party members are definitely not one person's hobbyhorse. "More fun and natural" is your opinion.
You listed 6 priorities at the beginning of your answer. Permanent HM slaves do not detract from any of them and help the rest of the team fulfill priority 3 and 5 and arguably also priority 4. If "fun and natural" are priorities, you should list them. If you think I'm the only person who likes them, you haven't done enough reading. There might be only 3 or 4 active people on this website, but the opinion is much more common on Smogon's in-game tiers subforum.
I forgot that ice beam was a game corner TM in FRLG because it was easier to get in RBY. Still, by the time you reach Cinnabar Mansion, you should have enough money to buy the TM and not much else to spend it on, unless your other Pokemon need Game Corner TMs more than Blastoise does. And when ice beam gets you a 2HKO (which is pretty often), an extra 25 base power isn't that helpful.
Normal Pokemon are pretty good in FRLG so saving return for them is totally reasonable, but even strength is better than bite for hitting water Pokemon.
Using dig over solar beam lets Typhlosion handle fire much more easily and hit rock without making itself vulnerable for a turn. I'd rather not set up sunny day against something that likely has a super effective move.
The focus blast TM is pretty cheap in HGSS. By the time both Typhlosion and Ampharos are fully evolved, the price of 2 of them should be trivial.
In DPPt, thunderbolt is expensive. Ice beam is expensive. Swords dance is not. Unless you're avoiding trainers, you should have more than enough money to buy one when you reach Veilstone City and another one when you get Garchomp. (Gabite can't learn it, so you don't need to buy it earlier)
While having less party members may be good, I don't think it should be a necessity. Having 6 battlers doesn't make a team inherently bad. It's the answerer's decision to prioritise variety over exp.

The real complaint I have is that there is no Hisui.
A few things about Inteleon:
The team doesn’t have Corviknight, which means that you can solo only the Rock gym(which is version exclusive), and the Fire gym. Raihan’s sandstorm team is doubles, a thing Rillaboom can do easily. Corviknight has an easy time sweeping the Grass, Fighting, Fairy, and part of the Dragon team. The gyms that it needs more help with are easier with Rilla+Barra or Cinder+Leafeon(The leaf stone is near the place where you have to follow Yamper to the ruins). Also with Corv, you can sweep the Rock/Ice gym until the GMAX/something that can kill comes out. Inteleon also has the most varied set and the least bulk(tied with Cinder, I think). Overall I think Cinderace or Rillaboom is better for Sword/Shield.
What makes Decidueye better than Primarina? Primarina has a better matchup than Decidueye in a lot more major battles. You can basically solo the game with just Primarina and Hawlucha.
"Robin Hood The Bird can trap with Spirit Shackle (or use Z-move) and then U-Turn out to a sweeper." - NPC's in this game barely even switch out their Pokémon so the trapping doesn't really matter.
Moxie is a Hidden Ability, so you likely won't get it in a normal playthrough (also what is the point of surf when you have Aqua Step).